U.S. spot XRP ETFs have recorded a 15-day consecutive inflow streak and accumulated assets under management estimated between $861 million and $972 million, putting them close to the $1 billion threshold. The surge follows a high-profile regulatory resolution and has immediate implications for custody, liquidity and institutional trading infrastructure.
Regulatory resolution and institutional re-engagement
The recent legal resolution in August 2025 that found XRP not to be a security—accompanied by a $125 million penalty for prior conduct—removed a material legal barrier and accelerated institutional engagement. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan characterized the outcome as the removal of an “existential cloud” that had restrained institutional allocation, while Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan pointed to a combination of regulatory clarity, liquidity and brand recognition as key drivers of rapid adoption. These shifts have enabled traditional asset managers and trading desks to offer regulated exposure to XRP within familiar product wrappers.
Institutions are largely acquiring XRP outside spot venues via over-the-counter (OTC) channels, a private-trade mechanism that allows large blocks to be assembled without immediate market impact. This quiet accumulation has coincided with the launch of complementary market infrastructure, as CME-listed XRP futures introduced in May 2025 reached $1 billion in open interest by August and a record 9,900 contracts by late October, providing regulated hedging capacity alongside ETF flows. OTC channels are private trading arrangements used by large counterparties to transact sizable positions off public exchanges.
The withdrawal of liquid supply is already measurable. Approximately 1% of circulating XRP has been absorbed into ETF-related custody, and wallets holding more than 10 million XRP increased their balance by about 92 million coins since mid-November, collectively controlling roughly 34% of supply. If daily ETF inflows continue near the reported $40–$60 million range, the freestanding liquid float could decline by an estimated 2–3% by Q1 2026, intensifying liquidity risk and the potential for supply-driven price moves.
On-chain and market metrics show evolving dynamics: XRP’s correlation with Bitcoin reportedly fell from 0.91 to 0.74, realized volatility hit a seven-month low and the Institutional Accumulation Ratio rose as OTC trades made up an estimated ~70% of large-block activity. Technical indicators cited include an early reversal on the TD Sequential, a positive MACD histogram and an RSI above 45, with analysts outlining bullish, base-case and bearish scenarios that carry distinct implications for custodians, exchanges and compliance programs. Each scenario frames different requirements for segregation and solvency controls, market-making and liquidity provision, and auditability and AML/KYC oversight.
The 15-day inflow streak places U.S. spot XRP ETFs on the cusp of $1 billion in AUM and marks a structural shift in institutional access to XRP. For issuers, custodians and trading platforms, immediate priorities center on fund segregation, scalable custody controls and liquidity-risk management as institutional rails for XRP continue to develop.