Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said on the Coin Stories podcast that he is not prepared to deploy fresh capital into Bitcoin at this stage. He presented the decision as a defensive response to fragile macro liquidity conditions and rising geopolitical tension, arguing that the current backdrop leaves risk assets vulnerable to sharper stress.
Hayes said he is holding a deliberately cautious allocation while waiting for clearer direction from U.S. monetary policy. He told the podcast that his portfolio is currently split 50% in cash and 50% in gold while he waits for a more supportive liquidity signal before returning to BTC, even as he reiterated longer-term upside expectations discussed in previous public comments.
Why Hayes is staying defensive
His near-term caution rests on three connected macro risks that, in his view, could quickly tighten financial conditions. Hayes argued that an escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions could trigger oil shocks and set off an initial risk-off move across markets, creating the kind of pressure that tends to hit speculative assets first.
He also pointed to a very different source of vulnerability: credit stress tied to rapid labour disruption from artificial intelligence. In his view, AI-driven job displacement could weaken higher-income borrowers, increase defaults across mortgages and consumer credit, and ultimately force a broader scramble for liquidity.
Hayes added a market-structure concern to that macro picture. He suggested that a move below $60,000 could open the door to cascading liquidations, turning a macro-driven pullback into a more disorderly deleveraging event for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Bitcoin, in his view, still depends on liquidity
Rather than treating Bitcoin as insulated from those pressures, Hayes described it as a market that reflects them quickly. He framed Bitcoin as a “liquidity alarm” rather than a hedge that can simply ignore broader macro squeezes, making clear that he sees policy conditions as more important than conviction alone in the current phase.
That is why he said he is waiting for a policy pivot from the Federal Reserve before putting new money to work. For Hayes, a turn toward easing would be the signal that liquidity is expanding again and that the environment is becoming more favorable for fresh BTC exposure.
Even with that tactical pause, he did not abandon his longer-range outlook. Hayes repeated the higher Bitcoin price targets he has floated before, including $250,000 and above, while making clear that his current posture is focused on capital preservation rather than immediate re-entry.
Liquidity monitoring, margin discipline, stress testing, and clear contingency planning remain critical if macro shocks, credit stress, or geopolitical events trigger a sudden flight to cash.