Grayscale‘s filing to convert its Zcash Trust into a spot ETF —via an S-3 registration with the SEC on November 26, 2025— arrives with net liquidity visible in institutional markets. The vehicle managed by Grayscale has acted as an on-ramp for flows influencing ZEC’s revaluation, placing the prospective “Spot Zcash ETF” at the center of the debate over institutional participation and privacy.
Regulation, volatility and supply compression frame the ETF’s potential impact on ZEC
Grayscale filed an S-3 with the SEC to convert its trust into a spot ETF and request listing on NYSE Arca under the ticker ZCSH, initiating a review cycle that can extend for several months or longer before approval or rejection.
We’ve filed the ZCSH Form S-3 – an important step required to launch the first ZEC ETPs.
Zcash launched in 2016. Seeing the potential of the Zcash protocol, we launched Grayscale Zcash Trust (Ticker: ZCSH) as a private placement in 2017.
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) November 26, 2025
The ETF proposal triggered a market reaction defined by high volatility: ZEC has climbed more than 1,000% year-over-year and nearly 50% in the past month, reaching $735 before retracing, with market capitalization touching roughly $9.24 billion at the peak — a move that signals a capital rotation into privacy-focused assets.
Regulatory uncertainty remains the core risk, given Zcash’s privacy architecture requires deeper evaluation around manipulation controls, custody standards and compliance workflows; historical ETF conversion timelines have varied widely, making the final outcome dependent on the intersection between SEC assessment and institutional demand conditions.
On the technical front, Zcash has expanded privacy adoption through Orchard and Halo Arc, increasing shielded usage: an estimated 20–25% of circulating supply sits in shielded addresses and roughly 30% of transactions leverage privacy features.
From a supply perspective, the 2025 halving reduced block issuance to 1,800 ZEC per day, cementing a structural limitation on new supply and sharpening sensitivity to demand shocks.
Market projections diverge sharply: bullish short-to-medium-term theses target zones between $600 and $1,000, hinging on ETF approval, technical upgrades and lower issuance, while conservative models present far lower ranges — such as $39–$53 or broader expectations between $10 and $450.
Over extended timeframes, optimistic analyses imagine four-digit valuations, yet bearish frameworks highlight fair-value gaps between $430–$353 and possible double-top breakdowns, pointing to vulnerability toward deep retracements — even corrections toward $100 in a leveraged unwind scenario.
In practical terms, ETF conversion could deepen demand but also consolidate liquidity into institutional hands, where large-scale sell pressure can transmit more abruptly into price.
Grayscale’s Spot Zcash ETF proposal reframes institutional entry into privacy coins and will determine whether ZEC can not only touch but sustain levels such as $600.