Bitcoin has returned above the $90,000 mark during Asian and European trading on Monday, December 22, 2025, positioning the move as a technical milestone ahead of the U.S. session. The rally faces immediate downside risk as markets transition into the U.S. trading window, which often concentrates volume and accelerates price moves.
U.S. session liquidity and macro catalysts define the near-term risk window
The primary near-term vulnerability is the U.S. session’s typical concentration of liquidity, which can turn normal positioning into sharp intraday swings. Market participants have highlighted the 2:30 PM–4:30 PM UTC window as a frequent locus of significant crypto price action, and U.S. market opens often overlap with macro releases that can rapidly reset risk appetite. This pattern increases the need for active intraday controls across trading, market-making, and hedging books.
Recent liquidity signals point to a tighter environment that can amplify volatility, especially if price moves trigger forced repositioning. Crypto investment products saw nearly $1 billion in net outflows in the third week of December, with U.S.-listed crypto ETPs absorbing most of the withdrawals. Separately, a reported $6.8 billion Federal Reserve liquidity injection has been viewed by some participants as insufficient, reinforcing the possibility that thin liquidity could magnify stress when volatility spikes. With employment and inflation data cited as proximate triggers, any surprise can reprice both spot and derivatives and elevate margin and funding risk.
Regulatory ambiguity remains a material downside variable, as delayed legislative clarity and potential oversight shifts keep policy risk in play for platforms, custodians, and institutional users. Bitcoin’s cross-asset behavior also matters: a reported correlation as high as 0.88 with the S&P 500 in 2025 implies equity weakness can transmit quickly into crypto exposures. Market expectations remain split: some analysts cite sustained ETF interest and upside scenarios into early 2026, while others point to bearish technical signals and deeper drawdown risk, reinforcing the need for scenario-based capital, liquidity, and operational planning.
The immediate test is the next 24 hours around the U.S. trading day and scheduled macro releases, which can materially shape intraday liquidity and risk parameters. Operators should treat this as a practical stress test for margining discipline, custody segregation, and operational resilience as the market attempts to hold the $90,000 level.